张增刚,李继志,李永安
ZHANG Zeng-gang~1,LI Ji-zhi~1,LI Yong-an~2 (1.University of Petroleum

• 1:中国石油大学(华东)
• 2:中国石油大学(华东)
• 3:山东建筑大学 山东东营257061
• 4:山东东营257061

摘要(Abstract)：

介绍了国内外动态风险分析技术的发展状况;分析了动态风险评估在城市蒸汽管网系统的作用。并对城市蒸汽管网系统风险模型及其系统的构建进行了分析;探讨发展动态风险分析技术所需要解决的关键技术问题。对我国在城市蒸汽管网系统中风险评估技术的应用提出了建议。
The dynamic risk model of urban steam pipe network system and its software system are analysed based on the development of dynamic risk analysis technology at home and abroad.Some key problems about dynamic risk analysis technology are discussed.Suggestions on developing risk-based application in urban steam pipe network system in China are proposed.

关键词(KeyWords)： 城市蒸汽管网;动态风险分析;概率安全评估;风险模型
urban steam pipe network system;dynamic risk analysis;probabilistic safety assessment;risk model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 山东省教委科技开发计划项目(J04D12)

作者(Author): 张增刚,李继志,李永安
ZHANG Zeng-gang~1,LI Ji-zhi~1,LI Yong-an~2 (1.University of Petroleum

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